Analysis
The community independents movement started in LNP-held seats, and up until the 2025 election there had been no community independent candidates contesting ALP seats. At the recent election, 54% of LNP seats had a ‘Voices’ (Community Independent) group and 39% had a candidate running. By contrast, only 21% of ALP seats had a Voices group and 10% had a candidate running.
Strong results from challengers in ALP seats such as Bean and Fremantle showed that ALP seats can be just as vulnerable to strong independent campaigns.
With the ALP’s 2025 landslide victory, a number of LNP seats that had Voices groups are now ALP seats, and the proportion of ALP seats with a Voices group has increased to just over a quarter, but this is still dwarfed by over half of LNP seats that have a Voices group.
In the map, we’ve categorised seats held by the major parties according to how susceptible they are to community independent campaigns, with category 1 being the most vulnerable.
The ALP currently holds a 19-seat majority in parliament. If our most urgent priority is to ensure minority government after the 2028 election, the total of 55 ALP seats in categories 1 – 3 provides ample scope to achieve this.
A similar number of ALP and LNP seats fall into categories 1 and 2, while the proportion of ALP seats in the lower categories is much higher. Together, a total of 93 seats in categories 1-3 can be considered vulnerable to independent candidates, amounting to nearly two-thirds of the parliament.
In categories 1, 2 and 3, there are already Voices (Community Independent) groups in 58% of the LNP seats but only 18% of the ALP seats, so there is a particularly significant opportunity for new Voices groups to develop in ALP seats, where they are needed to achieve minority government in 2028.
The map can be used to identify these seats, and the What Next page describes how to get started. Now is the time to get ready for the next election – it takes time to build a community movement, but it will be one of the best things you ever do – for yourself, your community and the nation.
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